Select macro-economic and demographic data for the country and the Bay Area

The Bay Area housing market is the center of national attention this summer. AI-driven wealth has offset persistently higher mortgage rates, pushing demand in a handful of neighborhoods to dramatic levels.

The most intense competition is concentrated in San Francisco itself. In June, 44 homes in the city sold for at least $1 million over asking (see charts, next page). Sales in San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin are running well above last year's pace.

Other parts of the Bay Area are more exposed to AI's other edge: jobs, inflation, and rates. Most buyers need a mortgage, and rates have stayed elevated — though still below last year's level. Nationally, inflation remains well above what policymakers and bond markets are comfortable with, driven by energy costs, government spending, and quite possibly the AI investment boom itself. Mortgage rates spent another month near 6.5%.

Santa Clara County is feeling a different edge: Bay Area tech companies have cut 58,000 jobs so far in 2026, and in the South Bay, inventory is climbing while average sale prices trail last year.

In many ways, the Bay Area is leading the nation's housing story in both directions — new wealth pulling the top of the market to record heights, while job insecurity and high rates weigh on buyers further down. It's always worth watching the Bay Area markets closely as we often signal where the rest of the country is headed next.